首页 煤炭 近年来,钢铁价格走势

近年来,钢铁价格走势

2008年全球铁矿石价格谈判已尘埃落定。有关专家预测2009年全球铁矿石价格走势,认为明年的铁矿石价格将在今年的基础上保持基本稳定,不会有大的起伏,甚至略有回落,其理由如下: 一、铁矿石价格是由市场决定的,近几年,世界经济经历新一轮高速发展,带动全球钢材需求以每年5%的速度增长,国际市场铁矿石价格也在持续飙升。2007年,世界三大铁矿石出口国出口量达6.27亿吨,2008年将达到7.28亿吨。需求的增长,必然带动铁矿石价格的上涨。从2002年开始,铁矿石一年一个台阶。可以说,这几年铁矿石价格的增长,是市场的必然。然而,由于美国次贷危机,美元贬值等一系列因素的影响,近期全球经济增速放缓,通胀明显。这种世界经济发展放缓的大趋势必然会影响到对钢材的需求也会放缓。导致对铁矿石需求的下降。 二、中国近年钢铁工业飞速发展,推动了世界铁矿石贸易的急剧增长。2007年中国铁矿石进口量3.83亿吨,占世界贸易总量的46%。但目前中国正在进行宏观调控,节能减排,限制钢铁产品出口,这些措施抑制了对钢材的需求。今年中国钢产量预测将达到5.24亿吨,明年的增长幅度有可能降低。由于世界铁矿石价格的上涨,刺激了国内铁矿石的生产。今后,中国钢产量有所增长的话,国内增产的矿石完全能够满足需求。因此,明年中国进口铁矿石不会有大的增长,很可能维持今年的水平。 三、2003年以来,全球铁矿石的投资是大幅度加快的。尤其是2004年之后,铁矿石的暴利刺激了投资进一步增长,世界铁矿石三巨头都扩大了生产规模。从最近得到的信息看,淡水河谷、力拓、必和必拓仍然在扩大规模,并已经排出了扩大规模的计划,有的规划已经开始实施。比如,力拓未来5年将投入300亿美元,最终扩产目标达到6亿吨;必和必拓2015年的产能目标是3亿吨;淡水河谷未来5年将投资590亿美元开发铁矿石项目。而且,伊朗、印尼、菲律宾、俄罗斯等国家,也在不断地在出口铁矿石。未来两年铁矿开采业产量将增加 3.25亿吨,而需求量仅增加2.5亿吨。 从目前的情况来看,世界钢铁产量增长的主要国家及地区在东南亚、中东以及印度,但其增速远不及铁矿石的增速。 四、今年铁矿石价格的谈判机制有所调整,过去提一家谈完,各家认可,今年是一家谈完,其他家根据自己的利益还要谈。因此说,今年的价格是一个开放的价格、市场的价格、各方利益充分体现的价格。该涨的都涨了,价格已经到位。明年除非有大的动荡,比如军事、政治、经济、自然灾害的大动荡,否则铁矿石价格不会有大的起伏。

At first memeSorry for not providing specific data, because I cannot find them on the internet. 1) The trend of steel price in the past three yearsThere is an important index to value steel in china, the Baoshan Steel Market Bargain Price Index. It’s made by Baoshan Steel Market Price Management CO. Referring to the classifying method of the CRU of the international steel price index, Baoshan Index includes flat sheet index, long product index and integrated index, in order to compare with foreign price.The index is based on the actual dealing price of the daily market, from the sample companies and about sample products, and takes full account of the representation of the structure of the steel products development. The sample companies mainly consist of well-known steel companies, for example, the Shanghai Baoshan Steel CO., at the Yangtze River region. Chart 1 the Baoshan Steel Market Bargain Price Index in to Chart 2 the Baoshan Steel Market Bargain Price Index in to Chart 3 the Baoshan Steel Market Bargain Price Index in to What have to stress is that the numbers at the left side in each chart doesn’t represent the marketing price, but the trend. For example, in 2008, the peak value of cold rolling sheet metal was 7480RMB per ton, and then fell by 1380RMB per ton because of the financial crisis. And now the cold rolling sheet metal price is about 6500RMB per ton. 2) The predict of the price in 2009It reports that the price ratio fell by 4.6% In the first season synchronally in 2008 and 2009. And what about the future? It’s hard to say. The steel industry has suffered hardship since the financial crisis, which made international steel market environment disrupted, as well as the home market, and diminished the demands of downstream industries, e.g. vehicle industry. Though the government takes measures, the future seems un-optimistic. at last i love you。有问题直接问我就好了啊!!!瓦咔咔

本文来自网络,不代表煤炭资讯立场。转载请注明出处: http://www.mtxh.cn/jg/mt-jg/8586.html
上一篇
下一篇

作者: Anita

为您推荐

返回顶部